Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Bill Shapard Sees Polling Failure

Super Tuesday in Oklahoma: Analysis, Comments and Takes from News and Social Media

OklahomaWatch asked several of us to comment on the results of Super Tuesday results.

Pat McGuigan, current and former governors, political consultants, and other perspectives were sought.
Cliff Adcock of Oklahoma Watch then compiled the best quotes for his report. One particular quote stood out, to me.

  The Oklahoman commissioned a poll in the final days. Here's how they characterized the results, at the time.
 "The poll was conducted by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates, an Oklahoma City-based polling firm, on Monday and Tuesday. Pollsters contacted 400 Republican likely voters by cell phone and land line. The poll has a margin for error of 4.9 percent.
  Trump's lead relies on men, national security issue voters and those focused on individual liberties,' said pollster Pat McFerron. 'Trump performs best among lower income households, those over 45 and those with a history of rarely voting in Republican primaries, though there is statistical tie among the top three candidates among the most reliable primary voters.'"

Sizing It Up

Bill Shapard, chief executive officer of SoonerPoll, said on Wednesday morning:
"Obviously, the polling is wrong. It’s not just my polling, it’s everyone’s polling. We all got the Republicans wrong, and most of us got the Democrats wrong."

"There’s a common thread for both winners in Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders. Both came to the state multiple times. They hired local folks. They put supporters on the ground and they had a good ground game. "

"Hillary Clinton didn’t even come to the state this last weekend. She sent Bill Clinton. The bottom line is that probably cost her tonight."

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