Saturday, June 21, 2014

The Runoff 'Bump'

How voter's support will migrate in a runoff election

A study of the likely voters in the June 24th Republican Primary conducted a poll of very likely voters over the first 3 weeks of June, leading up to the Republican primary election. We were able to ascertain some significant information about how candidates will be effected by the consolidation factor of a runoff election, assuming that no candidate garners a majority of the primary vote. Candidates who drew at least 10% in the polls, are tracked in this migration study.
   The only race that is projected to avoid a runoff (according to a consensus of polls) is Jim Inhofe's bid for 4th term in the U.S. Senate.
   The unscientific voting sample was not indicative of who would prevail in the primary election, itself; but it does provide an insight into the mindset of the supporters of each of the candidates. you can study the  summary, here.

Over 90% of Chad Moody's support shifts to Dax Ewbank.
Over 80% of Dax Ewbank's support shifts to Chad Moody.
Over 80% of Mary Fallin's support shifts to Dax Ewbank.

Unexpired U.S. Senate
Over 60% of James Lankford's support shifts to Randy Brogdon.
Over 60% of Randy Brogdon's support shifts to T.W. Shannon.
Over 60% of T.W. Shannon's support shifts to James Lankford.

U.S. Senate New term
Over 40% of Eric Wyatt's support shifts to Jim Inhofe.
Over 50% of Jim Inhofe's support shifts to Eric Wyatt.

State Superintendent
Over 80% of Brian Kelly's support shifts to Joy Hofmeister.
Janet Barresi's support splits evenly between Brian Kelly & Joy Hofmeister.
Over 80% of Joy Hofmeister's support shifts to Brian Kelly.

These statistics are based upon the responses of  voters who were asked;
 "Who is your 2nd choice? Select the candidate you next prefer, if your first preference was not available.".
The internals of this polling data can be studied at Sooner Politics Polling. is not affiliated with "The Sooner Poll"
David Van Risseghem

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