Sunday, February 8, 2015

Presidential Primary Leapfog Game Continues

  Many of us Sooner conservatives are "keeping our powder dry" and doing our best to inform ourselves on all the presumed candidates for 2016's presidential sweepstakes. But the process looks to be much different in the 2016 version of GOP presidential primaries.
  New York appears to be bullying her way into early influence with a likely move to early February. But the midwest & mountain states countered with caucus plans which offer a Tea Party darling more delegates than the Empire State. Two  weeks later, the Carolinas are synchronizing for candidates to stick around for a while, in the lower Appalachians. 
  The biggest event is where Oklahoma and other southern states are building a huge Super Tuesday prize on March 1st. Texas moves into prominence along with Florida. These huge prizes have returned to the original strategy of the southern states which first contrived the Super Tuesday concept as a way for southern Democrat states to keep an eastern liberal from winning the DNC nominaton. While it did produce a Bill Clintion, it ultimately shaped RNC strategies more than the Democrat party who created it in the mid 80s.
  By mid March, the process will be in the cleanup stage (if not earlier). 23 state processes will have spoken and 50% of the delegates will be pledged.

Republican PartyRepublican
Delegate Allocation
date event pledged unpledged strategy
January, Mon., Jan. 18 Iowa caucuses* 30 All early candidates spend a year courting voters
Tuesday, January 26 New Hampshire* 18 3 All early candidates spend a year courting voters
February, Tue., Feb. 2 New York* 92 3 All early candidates spend a year courting voters The last 2 weeks will be a time of huge shift, as Iowa & New Hampshire results lead to coalesce of support for top candidates.Tea Party favorites may skip New York in favor of Feb 2 Western prizes
Minnesota caucuses 38
Colorado caucuses 37
Utah 40
Saturday, February 6 Nevada caucuses* 30
Saturday, February 13 South Carolina* 50 A week after the east/west split, the Carolinas will be a big showdown for frontrunner, but Michigan has all candidates attention for a week prior to the Southern juggernaut of Super Tuesday
Tuesday, February 16 North Carolina* 68 3
Tuesday, February 23 Michigan 56 3
March, Tue., March 1 Texas 150 3 Southern prizes will likely determine the inevitable nominee
At the conclusion over 40% of the RNC  delegates will be committed
Florida 99
Virginia 46 3
Tennessee 53 3
Colorado caucuses 37
Oklahoma 38 3
Massachusetts  39 3
Vermont 16
Saturday, March 5 Louisiana 20 26 Southern states continue to dominate the primary calendar, giving a big impact on the choice of nominee.
Tuesday, March 8 Ohio 62 3
Alabama 47 3
Mississippi 36 3
Hawaii Rep. caucuses 16 3
Sunday, March 13 Puerto Rico 20 3
Tuesday, March 15 Illinois 57 12
Missouri 49 3
Tuesday, March 22 Arizona 58
April, Tue., April 5 Wisconsin 41
Maryland 38
 District of Columbia 16 3
Tuesday, April 26 Pennsylvania 71
Connecticut 25 3
Delaware 16
Rhode Island 16 3
May, Tuesday, May 3 Indiana 27 30
Tuesday, May 10 Nebraska 33 3
West Virginia 28 3
Tuesday, May 17 Kentucky 42 3
Oregon 25 3
Tuesday, May 24 Arkansas 37 3
Washington 40 3
June, Tues., June 7 Idaho 32
California 169 3
New Jersey 50
Montana 27
South Dakota 24 3
New Mexico 19 3
(no set date) Georgia 76
Kansas 40
Maine 23
Wyoming 27
Total: 2021 425
For more info about the constantly- changing process of setting state presidential events, see:
David Van Risseghem

1 comment :

  1. This is all so frustrating. At the rate states keep moving their primaries back so they can be first, in a few more elections we'll be having the primaries for the next election a week after the previous general election.