Sunday, February 15, 2015

States Join Oklahoma For A Bigger & Better Super Tuesday

chart provided by FrontloadingHQ
  The 2016 GOP Presidential battle is already heating up. Not a day goes by where cable news channels don't have the results of some new poll.
  We consulted with the researchers of Frontloading-HQ for an idea of what the 2016 calendar will look like.  Their monitors are watching the legislative measures in several state capitols. But if the Vegas bookies were thinking like FHQ, this list looks like their best prognostications.
Reading the Map:
  As was the case with the maps from past cycles, the earlier a contest is scheduled in 2012, the darker the color in which the state is shaded. Michigan, for instance, is a much deeper shade of blue in February than California is in June. There are, however, some differences between the earlier maps and the one that appears above.
  Several caucus states have yet to select a date for the first step of their delegate selection processes in 2016. Until a decision is made by state parties in those states, they will appear in gray on the map.
  The states where legislation to move the presidential primary is active are two-toned with wide, diagonal stripes. One color indicates the timing of the primary according to the current law whereas the second color is meant to highlight the month to which the primary could be moved. For example, a bill currently being considered in Massachusetts would move the presidential primary from its current position in March to a new spot on the calendar in June.
  Other states -- the carve-out states and states with state laws providing guidance for setting a primary or caucuses date but no specific date or multiple specified dates -- are also two-toned with narrow, horizontal stripes. In this case, one color (gray) represents the uncertainty of the primary or caucuses date now while the other color (or colors) highlight the options available to states or the most likely date for a contest in that state given the information we currently have. So, in Iowa, for instance, we know that the state parties in the Hawkeye state will want to protect the first in the nation status they have enjoyed in the past. To maintain that position alone, Iowa could now conduct its precinct caucuses as late as January 18, 2016. In a state like Utah, the primary itself is dependent on the state legislature allocating funds for that purpose. Should legislators in the Beehive state follow through on that action for 2016, the primary would be in early February. That explains the color in both instances.
  States that are bisected vertically are states where the state parties have different dates for their caucuses and/or primaries. The left hand section is shaded to reflect the state Democratic Party's scheduling while the right is for the state Republican Party's decision on the timing of its delegate selection event (see Nebraska). This holds true for states -- typically caucus states -- with a history of different dates across parties but which also have not yet chosen a contest date.
2016 Presidential Primary Calendar 
[ first 3 months projections of Frontloading-HQ: ]
Monday, January 18:
  • Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, January 26:
  • New Hampshire
Tuesday, February 2:
  • Colorado caucuses
  • New York
  • Utah
Saturday, February 6:
  • Nevada caucuses 
Saturday, February 13:
  • South Carolina 
Tuesday, February 16: 
  • North Carolina
Tuesday, February 23:
  • Michigan
Tuesday, March 1:
  • Colorado caucuses 
  • Florida
  • Massachusetts 
  • Minnesota caucuses
  • Oklahoma
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
Saturday, March 5:
  • Louisiana
  • Tuesday, March 8:
  • Alabama
  • Hawaii Republican caucuses
  • Mississippi
  • Ohio

Tuesday, March 15:
  • Illinois
  • Missouri 
Tuesday, March 22:
  • Arizona

David Van Risseghem

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